Facing the increasing probability of extreme events and their tremendous possible impacts on societies, it is inevitable to investigate their impacts on current and future energy, mobility and information systems. This is also more than valid, facing the aspect that through the network character of those systems, extreme events lead to cascading effects along its system-parts. That is why,natural disasters can have also severe impacts far away from their place of origin. The current globalization and strong interconnectedness around the world is also increasing this aspect. To assess the indirect impacts of natural events, two subprojects were implemented, dealing with supply chain vulnerability under consideration of global interconnectedness and changed consumer mobility requests in the aftermath of a disaster.
Aims / Objective
This project aims to investigate the impacts of natural disasters on supply chain performance as well as changed mobility behavior of households in the aftermath of a disaster. Furthermore recommendations on supply chain design, sourcing strategies and on mobility regulations will be given.
Subproject 1: Effects of extreme events on supply chains
For a detailed investigation different vulnerability drivers for a supply chain had been identified and classified according to different types of risk. The aforementioned extreme events are part of the external supply chain risks, which cannot directly be influenced by e.g., a corporation or country. Furthermore, the vulnerability of a place or location is determined by different pre-event characteristics. Those factors can be social, economic, physical and environmental characteristics. In an intensive literature review had those factors been identified and a selection had been made regarding the topic. The next step is the formulation and implementation of the model to assess the impacts of natural disasters on supply chains and the application for defined case studies.
Subproject 2: Effects of extreme events on mobility behavior and mobility systems
In a literature review, information about general mobility behavior and mobility behavior during extreme events could be found, whereas studies dealing with mobility patterns after extreme events could not be found so far. To understand mobility behavior after extreme events it is crucial to examine every day mobility behavior and mobility patterns, i.e. behavior under normal conditions, first. For this, survey data of the German Mobility Panel (MOP) will be investigated with a special focus on trip purposes and modal split for specific groups of persons. In a second step, people, who suffered from extreme events in the past, will be interviewed or a online questionnaire will be used to get information about changing mobility preferences to deviate mobility behavior after extreme events. The next steps will be building a model for the changed mobility behavior and examine the usability of different mobility systems in case of extreme events.
Bartsch, M., Schätter, F., Wiens, M., Schultmann, F. (2016): Schlussbericht BMBF Verbundprojekt SEAK; Teilvorhaben: Methoden zur szenariobasierten multikriteriellen Entscheidungsunterstützung für robuste Lebensmittelwarenketten;
Schmidt, H.-M., Wiens, M., Schultmann, F. (2015): Industrial Vulnerability against Climate Change Impacts – An indicator-Based Analysis for Germany and the Stuttgart Metropolitan Area. The 5th World Sustainability Forum, Basel, 2015.
Schmidt, H-M., Wiens, M., Schultmann, F. (2015): Models for Regionalizing Economic Data and their Applications within the Scope of Forensic Disaster Analyses. Poster session at the European Union General Assembly 2015, Vienna.